Joe Biden is holding on to a roughly 9% lead over President Trump in national polls with the election less than 100 days away, but history shows that the election has not been decided yet.
Critical swing states Florida (29 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Michigan (16 electoral votes), North Carolina (15 electoral votes), Arizona (11 electoral votes), and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) currently show Biden ahead, but the margins are in the single-digits and undecided voters make up about 6% of those surveyed.
After years of mainstream media attacks on President Trump, which have only intensified in recent months, the President’s campaign officials warn that many supporters of the President keep their views private, for fear of being called racist or worse.
It is very plausible that Biden will go into November 3 feeling confident, and later leave as surprised and deflated as Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
The Issues America Cares About
After a tumultuous 2020, Pew Research Center has found that American voters are most concerned about:
- Economy (79%)
- Healthcare (68%)
- Supreme Court Appointments (64%)
- The Coronavirus Outbreak (62%)
- Violent Crime (59%)
Not surprisingly, Trump supporters and Biden supporters deviate on the importance of various issues. Trump supporters are much more concerned with Violent Crime, Foreign Policy, and Gun Policy than they are about Race and Ethnic Inequality, Economic Inequality, and Climate Change.
Biden supporters are most concerned with Healthcare, The Coronavirus Outbreak, and Race and Ethnic Inequality. They find Abortion, Immigration, and Violent Crime to be less important.
The areas in which voters feel that the Republican party is better equipped to handle U.S. affairs are the Economy, Terrorism, Gun Policy, and Law Enforcement.
In a year marked by violent protests and rioting throughout the U.S., as well as the highest number of firearms sold in history, those who prioritize those issues may just find themselves voting for Trump this November.
Is History on Trump’s Side?
In 2016, few people could have predicted Trump’s strong win over Hillary Clinton. Trump took home 306 electoral votes to Clinton’s 232, taking all 6 of the major swing states. Though Biden currently leads in all 6 of the aforementioned swing states, his leads in Arizona and North Carolina are very low.
Biden leads by 8 points in Michigan, 6.7 points in Florida, 6 points in Pennsylvania, 5 points in Wisconsin, 3.4 points in North Carolina, and 3.2 points in Arizona. Biden’s current lead is similar to Clinton’s going into the 2016 election.
The night before the 2016 election, Clinton was predicted to win 297 electoral votes to Trump’s 241 - the exact prediction that Newsweek is making for the 2020 election, subbing in Biden’s name for Clinton’s.
While the mainstream media and the pollsters may want you to believe that a Biden victory is all but in the bag, history has shown that all of the misreporting in the world cannot create a victory where there isn’t one. It’s hardly time to call it quits for Trump, as evidenced by the daily attacks the media is rolling out leading up to election day.